ICAOFIR Traffic Forecast representation: World coverage includes 4 maps with 4 layers consisting of the city/pair with symbology for the traffic flow (in color) and one layer consisting of aerodrome movements with symbology. In 2012, ICAO was the first in the world to create these types of maps. The data is sourced from the Official Airline Guide (OAG) and grouped by 32 major traffic flows worldwide. The projections for the years 2020, 2030 and 2040 are a by-product from the results of a commercial aircraft fleet-mix forecast model developed by the ICAO Secretariat in 2013. The main function of the model is the prediction of the aircraft fleet mix (aircraft by seat class) operated on each route.
The commercial aircraft fleet is grouped into 9 seat classes (depending on the number of seats on the aircraft). The model uses as input ICAO forecasts by traffic flow along with assumptions on the future evolution of load factors, aircraft utilization, aircraft retirement curves among other parameters. The model output includes the aircraft fleet mix operated on each route along with the number of movements, available seats and aircraft utilization. Conclusion 2040: 87,000,000 movements, 2030: 64,000,000 movements, 2020: 45,000,000 movements, 2010: 30,230,000 movements based on the most recent ICAO forecast and with the assumption of a fixed route network.
Data Source: Reported Traffic Flow city/pair from OAG data with passengers, plane types and airline companies.
Project date: Created January 2018.
Client: All Companies with aeronautical data systems wanting to follow the growing traffic.
Project URLs: ICAO Traffic Flow Forecast 2010-2020-2030-2040 (must be on the new server)
ICAO Traffic Flow Forecast 2010-2020-2030-2040 pdf
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